The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting
Alan Greenspan
The title of the book has a profound meaning, best conveyed by the well-known proverb: "Smooth on paper, but forgot about the ravines. The book by Alan Greenspan, who served 18.5 years as head of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, is interesting primarily because it analyzes the reasons why the existing economic models were unable to predict crises, in particular the 2008 crisis. From the author's point of view, the reason is that these models do not take into account the behavioral aspects of economics and finance that play a major role in the modern world. He offers his approaches to assessing these aspects - people's instinctive propensities - and incorporating them into the models. The author supports his reasoning and conclusions with the results of research on an extensive body of evidence. The book became a bestseller in many countries, it is well known to financiers and economists around the world. In Russian Greenspan's fundamental work is published for the first time. The special value of the book is given by the fact that this is the latest edition of the current year (the last changes updating the information of 2013 were made by the author in the text only a month ago).
